GOP Term Limits Complicate Effort to Replace McConnell

Senators return to the nation’s capital this week. It is the first opportunity Senate Republicans have had to discuss Mitch McConnell’s, R-Ky., leadership in person since he froze at a routine press conference at the end of July. McConnell's recent episode and critics' persistent frustration with his leadership suggest that Republicans will consider the matter at one of their weekly party luncheons.

Rank-and-file Republicans can discuss McConnell's continued leadership whenever they want. And they can replace him as their leader if they believe that McConnell can no longer do the job.

But there are two challenges to having a candid discussion about McConnell’s leadership (not to mention replacing him as leader). The first challenge is McConnell himself. McConnell moved quickly to reassure rank-and-file Republicans that he is more than capable of continuing to serve as their leader. For example, McConnell noted that the Capitol’s attending physician said he was "medically clear to continue with his schedule as planned." McConnell later released a letter from the attending physician informing him that "there is no evidence that you have a seizure disorder or that you experienced a stroke, TIA or movement disorder such as Parkinson's disease." These moves preempt arguments that McConnell cannot be a leader due to his deteriorating health. 

The second - and more significant - challenge is the implicit culture of deference to the floor leader among Senate Republicans. Republicans’ decision in the mid-1990s to place term limits on all of their leadership positions except one - the floor leader [McConnell’s leadership position] - created that culture, ironically. It encourages potential rivals to wait for openings in the Republican leadership to arise instead of running against incumbent leaders. And it facilitates the Senate's present centralization of power in the majority and minority leaders.

GOP Term-Limit Rules

Republican Conference Rules I and V(B)(1) and (2) limit how long senators can serve in most leadership positions or as a committee chair/ranking member. Conference Rule I establishes two-year terms of office for party leaders and limits the number of terms a senator can serve “in any elected party leadership position other than Floor Leader or President Pro Tempore” to three. Conference Rule V(B)(1) stipulates that senators “shall serve no more than six years, cumulatively, as chairman of the same standing committee.” And Conference Rule V(B)(2) stipulates that “service as ranking member shall also be limited to six years, cumulatively.”

Republicans adopted term limits for party leaders and committee chairs/ranking members in 1995 as part of a broader package of reforms. Rank-and-file Republicans designed the package to limit the influence of moderates who, at the time, dominated many of the Senate's committees by their seniority. Their initial proposal imposed term limits on committee chairs/ranking members, required secret ballot votes for committee chairs/ranking members, and empowered a three-quarters majority of Republicans to adopt a formal policy agenda for the conference. The proposal did not impose term limits on party leaders initially.

John H. Chafee, R-RI, - a moderate Republican and reform opponent - proposed adding term limits for party leaders to the package during its consideration. Chafee aimed to persuade enough Republicans to oppose the package's committee term limits provision. And he believed that imposing similar limits on party leaders would help.

However, Chafee’s gambit did not work. Republicans instead approved his proposal to impose term limits on party leaders. But they exempted the floor leader and president pro tempore from those limits before doing so.

The Impact

Republicans’ term limit rule destabilized their traditional leadership structure. And it encouraged them to defer to their floor leader instead of challenging him when they disagreed. This culture of deference facilitated the centralization of Senate decision-making in recent decades.

Imposing term limits on all leadership positions except the floor leader ensured that time-limited leaders could not develop an independent base of support to challenge the floor leader. They were instead forced to step down when their time was up.

Don Nickles, R-Okla., was the first Republican leader to be “termed out” (i.e., forced to step down from a leadership position due to the conference rules). Nickles stepped down as assistant floor leader (or whip) in 2002. Jon Kyl, R-Az., was also forced to step down as assistant floor leader (or whip) after serving three terms at the end of 2012. John Cornyn, R-Tex., John Thune, R-SD, John Barrasso, R-Wy., and Roy Blunt, R-Mo., were similarly forced to step down from their positions at the end of the 115th Congress (on January 3, 2019) - all after having served in their positions for three terms.

In contrast, McConnell is presently in his ninth term as floor leader. He has served in that position for 16 years. McConnell would have been forced to step down as floor leader ten years ago if Republicans’ term limit rule applied to him.

By exempting their floor leader from term limits, Republicans created a two-tiered leadership structure that concentrated influence and power at the top. After 1995, some Republican leaders were time-limited in their positions, and one Republican leader was not.

Separating the floor leader from the other leadership positions in this way encouraged Republicans to think differently about how their leadership team functioned. Republicans had a corporate leadership structure historically. That is, various roles associated with the leadership (e.g., coordinating senators’ floor activity, counting their votes, crafting effective messages, and developing policy) were assigned to different leaders (i.e., the floor leader, assistant floor leader, conference chairman, and policy committee chairman). This structure encouraged Republican leaders to think about how to best perform the tasks associated with their positions. It also made it easier for Republicans to evaluate contrasting visions offered to them in leadership elections.

But Republicans' two-tiered leadership structure post-1995 transformed their corporate leadership team into a hierarchical one. This transformation is evident in the disappearance of competitive leadership elections soon after Republicans adopted term limits in 1995, as those senators not in leadership opted to wait for a position to open up instead of challenging an incumbent. And those Republicans serving in the leadership kept a low profile while waiting to move up the leadership ladder as vacancies occur above them. As they bide their time, the leadership collectively looks to the Republican floor leader to call the shots.

As a result, Republicans' leadership teams began to resemble Democrats' leadership, which has historically been more hierarchical (though Democrats have taken some small steps towards decentralizing their leadership structure in recent years). Two influential floor leaders - the majority and minority leaders - made it possible to centralize Senate decision-making under them.

The Takeaway

While Senate Republicans can pick a new leader to replace McConnell at any point, their term limit rules make it harder for them to do so. McConnell plays an outsized role in the Senate Republican Conference because he has been Republican Leader for 16 years. However, his increased involvement in other areas has contributed to the Senate's present dysfunction because he is saddled with expectations beyond the floor leader's traditional responsibilities. By playing active roles in policy development, messaging, campaigning, and vote counting, McConnell is left with less time (and resources) to do the job he was initially hired - coordinating the action of his Republican colleagues on the Senate floor. The result is an imbalanced GOP leadership and a culture of deference that discourages rank-and-file Republicans from doing something about it.