Senate Republicans Can Replace McConnell Next Week

Senators return to the nation's capital next week. It will be the first time they meet in person in over a month. And a long list of pressing matters awaits them. Funding the government tops that list with only 12 "working days" scheduled before current funding expires at the end of September.

Next week will also be the first time Senate Republicans meet since Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., froze at a routine press conference in July. McConnell's episode alarmed rank-and-file Republicans. And it fueled speculation that they would replace him as leader.

The month-long August recess and the prospect of a government shutdown dampened such speculation initially. But McConnell's latest episode and lingering frustration with his leadership suggest that at least some Republicans will raise the issue when senators return next week. And it only takes five senators to force Republicans to decide whether McConnell should continue to serve as leader.

Leadership Elections

Republicans’ conference rules spell out how and when they pick their leaders. Specifically, Conference Rule I stipulates that Republicans should elect a “Floor Leader [McConnell’s leadership position], Assistant Floor Leader [or whip], Chairman of the Conference, Vice Chairman of the Conference, Chairman of the Policy Committee, Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee” at a Republican Party Conference meeting. The rule requires Republicans to hold that meeting “at the beginning of each Congress, or within one week thereafter.”

In recent years, however, Senate Republicans have picked their leaders at the first conference meeting following an election – in November or December instead of at the beginning of a new Congress in January. The shift towards earlier leadership elections is evident in the declining average number of days between Election Day and the date when Republicans pick their leaders. Between 1934 and 2022, Senate Republicans averaged 40 days between Election Day and the date of their leadership elections. That number dropped to just 9 days between 2006 and 2022. (Incumbent leaders – like McConnell – prefer snap leadership elections because it makes it more likely that they will win.)

Once elected, Republican conference rules stipulate that “the term of office of all [party leaders] … shall extend for not more than two years, and shall expire at the close of each Congress." That means McConnell can serve as Republican leader until the 118th Congress ends in January 2025.

But the conference rules do not guarantee McConnell’s leadership position until 2025. The conference rules instead empower Republican senators to remove McConnell before the end of the 118th Congress. Conference Rule III requires the Conference Chair to convene a Republican Conference meeting when at least five senators request it. And Republicans may propose getting rid of McConnell at that meeting. The only requirement is that the vote be by secret ballot if it is contested.

The Takeaway

Republican Conference Rules empower rank-and-file Republicans to decide whether McConnell should continue to serve as their leader. And five Republicans can force their colleagues to decide this question as early as next week when senators return to work.